Speaker/Topic Info

“Wine Analytics: The Impact of Weather and Market on En Primeur Prices”

Many businesses in the wine industry do not engage in en primeur (also, known as wine futures) because they cannot predict the release prices in order to make efficient plans and purchasing arrangements. Our work provides guidance to winemakers in their price selection, and buyers (negociants, distributors, merchants) on the appropriateness of these prices.

We examine empirically how weather and market fluctuations influence the release prices of fine wine. Higher temperatures and appreciation in the Liv-ex 100 index as market indicator increase prices while higher levels of precipitation reduce them. Prices can be predicted for classified winemakers of the Left Bank of Bordeaux using temperatures, rain, and market – without relying on the reviews of tasting experts. For the unclassified winemakers of the Right Bank, however, prices are influenced by barrel scores of these tasting experts.

Our findings can be used by winemakers in determining the release prices, and by all buyers of wine (e.g., negociants, distributors, restaurateurs, merchants) in making effective purchasing arrangements.

Bio: 

M. Hakan Hekimoglu is an Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management and Analytics at the Lally School of Management, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Dr. Hekimoglu holds a PhD degree in Supply Chain Management from Syracuse University. He has received his BS in Industrial Engineering and MS in Finance from Bilkent University in Ankara, Turkey, and his MA in Economics from Syracuse University.

Dr. Hekimoglu’s research interests include interdisciplinary problems at the interface of supply chain management, finance, and business analytics, with an emphasis on managing uncertainty and risk in complex supply chain problems. Dr. Hekimoglu’s paper titled “Wine Analytics: Fine Wine Pricing and Selection under Weather and Market Uncertainty” is published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, a prestigious academic journal. His paper is considered to be influential by wine distributors and it is selected to be re-published in the INFORMS Editor’s Cut.